Game 1 Recap

In a repeat of last year's opener, the Tigers drop one in extra innings. It looked good early on with the way Verlander was pitching and the way the Tigers were hitting, but the Royals just wouldn't go away and took one from the home team in 11 innings.

Tigers 4 Royals 5
W: Leo Nunez (1-0)
L: Denny Bautista (0-1)

My Game Notes:

• Justin Verlander had around 85 pitches of Cy Young candidate stuff. Then the home run to Alex Gordon, and the top of the 7th happened. Still good to see him effective this early in the season
• Here's how the new guys did: Miguel "El Palo Grande" Cabrera 1-5 with that 1 being a solo HR, Edgar Renteria 1-5 with an RBI, Jacque Jones 0-4 and replaced by Clete Thomas who notched his first MLB hit in his first MLB at-bat, but was stranded at 3rd in the 11th. All in all, too much swinging not enough contact by the new guys as they were responsible for 7 of the 11 K's for the Tigers. I'm hoping it was just Opening Day jitters in the new park for these guys
• 4 walks by Gary Sheffield, with the first 2 coming after being down 0-2. I think he'll have a better April this year
• to paraphrase Rod Allen, I think the new riser seats on the porch in right and under the scoreboard in leftfield should be dubbed "The Seats Cabrera Built"
• Rod's first "Durrty" of the season, top of the 5th after Verlander struck out John Buck
• that 7th inning was just Grilli being Grilli.
• I was surprised to see Aquafina Aquilino Lopez come out instead of Zach Miner after Bobby Seay
• I'm sure the bullpen will be the focus of every story, column, and post about the game today. I'll give them a 20 game cushion to prove themselves before I hit the panic button.
• Denny Bautista was up and down, striking out three, but allowing 5 baserunners in 2 innings of work
• Brandon Inge has some very goos at-bats and a great play to show off his laser-rocket arm to keep the game tied (at the time) in the 11th
• I don't know if Placido Polanco has ever gone 0-6 in a game in his career
• On the plus side, there is a day off tomorrow to rest the bullpen

Tigers Record
W - L
0 - 1

Finally...

The one day of the year where everyone is a contender (offer void in Baltimore and San Fransisco). The weather down here in Georgia is 50 degrees and rainy, so if I turn the TV around and sit on the porch it will feel like I'm there. I won't be doing that as warmth and a comfy couch are much more appealing to me. So off to walk the dog and to the store to grab supplies, and to explain to everyone at the store why I need 2 bags of chips and beer at 11 on a Monday morning. Happy Opening Day everyone

4 Things That Worry Me (and 3 Make Me Feel Better)

Opening Day is just around the corner, and the Tigers are not the well-oiled, ready to destroy the AL juggenaut that I expected. Besides the omnipresent bullpen issue ("you can't win games if you score 10 runs if the bullpen gives up 11" is this year's "Todd Jones Sucks" statement I'm already sick of arguing) there are a few things I'm nervous about.

1) Dontrelle Willis
It not the runs surrendered that scares me as much as the walks. Willis has walked 15 this spring, the other 4 starters combined have walked 18. I'm in the same camp as Ian from BYB, thinking that these control issues might be due to a bum arm. If that's the case I hope Dontrelle addresses it sooner than later. I'd hate to see another situation like Jeremy Bonderman's last year to cripple the rotation.

2) Joel Zumaya and Fernando Rodney's arms
The rallying cry for the bullpen the past two years has been " Wait until Zumaya and Rodney get healthy". But what if they don't? Zumaya has had 3 injuries since the 2006 Playoffs, and if you listen to what Baseball Prospectus injury guru Will Carroll had to say to Bill at DTW, the outlook for Rodney isn't very rosy either. Oddly enough, I think the injury might help Zumaya. If it takes away a little velocity and forces him to have better precsion with his pitches it would benefit him. That is if he is still able to throw a curveball. If he doesn't have that change of pace pitch, Zumaya is no better than Jason Grilli. In any case if either Rodney or Zumaya aren't big contributors this year, you might have to start looking at trading them for whatever you can get.

3) An injury to a Starter
If indeed Dontrelle Willis is hurt or if Kenny Rogers goes down again, who replaces them? Right now the only options are Virgil Vasquez and newly converted starter Macay McBride. Yorman Bazardo and Zach Miner are two guys that could fill in as spot-starters, but I think both would be better used out of the bullpen. If a Tiger goes down, would currently unsigned Russ Ortiz, David Wells, or Jeff Weaver be getting a phone call?

4) SI picked the Tigers
This isn't really a serious concern, but since 2001 SI has been wrong in predicting every World Series winner. And only the 2001 Yankees were the only team to make the World Series.


But get down off the ledge, here are some things that keep me believing:

1) Miguel Cabrera
How can 180 hits, 30+ HRs, and 100+ RBIs not help this team? Seriously, if you can't get excited about probably one of the Top 5 players in the Majors on your team, you had better check your pulse.

2) Is the bullpen really that bad?
Jason Grilli takes a lot of crap (rightfully so), but away from Comerica he was outstanding. His line on the road was opponents hitting only .184 against him, and surrendering only 9 earned runs in 42.1 innings pitched. I don't except another season of those road splits, but if he can meet in the middle of his home and road performances, he'll be alright. Judging by his performances this spring it's a good sign that he can. Denny Bautista and Yorman Bazardo will also be a huge boost, if they translate their spring success to the regular season. Bautista in particular, I think could be a difference. His past control issues seem to have been resolved enough for Jim Leyland to designate him the 8th inning set-up man. Add to that the returning Bobby Seay and Zach Miner, and the bullpen doesn't look that bad. I wouldn't trust this bullpen with Seattle or San Diego's offense, but with a offense the will average around 6 runs a game, they'll do fine.

3) Seriously look at the line-up

• 4 players in the MLB Top 20 in batting average and Top 30 in OBP in 2007 (Magglio, Cabrera, Polanco, Renteria).
• 3 in the top 20 for Slugging percentage (Magglio, Cabrera, Granderson).
• Only Gary Sheffield hit below .280 (.265 his lowest average since 1997), and with Gary guaranteed not to touch the field this year that should go up.
• 5th in the Majors in Team OBP, then they added Renteria (career OBP of .349) and Cabrera (career .388 OBP).

Detroit hasn't seen an assembly line like this since the heyday of the Ford Rouge Factory. It's should be an interesting summer one way or another.

A Picture is Worth 1000 Words

JULIAN H. GONZALEZ/DFP

This guy's worth $153.3 Million. If you bought a #24 jersey this offseason, wear it with pride knowing that it's not going out of style for at least the next 8 years.

Atlanta: Great When Tornado-Free

In addition to year-round golf, 60 degree sunny days in February, and no snow; tonight I came across another benefit of my move to Georgia. The Braves-Tigers game was televised locally.
This time my wish of a line-up with Miguel Cabrera was granted. I also was able to see Denny Bautista for the first time as well. Here's some notes from the game:

• Verlander looked good early. He even had a single. He did lose a bit of control late, collecting 3 of his 4 walks in the last 1.1 innings he pitched
• Tim Hudson looked just as good for the Braves.
• Fox baseball expert Ken Rosenthal was in the Braves booth, and said he had picked the Braves to win the World Series. The article will be out in a few weeks, so we'll see whether he was just making nice with the Atlanta broadcast team, or is for real.
• Speaking of the broadcast team, they were very complimentary of the Tigers, Jim Leyland in particular.
• My first look at Cabrera was disappointing, 0-3 with a walk. Although that walk ended up being the go-ahead run (at the time).
• Yorman Bazardo broke Jeff Francouer's bat causing him to hit into an inning-ending double play to end a threat in the 6th.
• Todd Jones threw 2 full scoreless innings, allowing only one hit. He even had a strikeout.
• Denny Bautista gets the loss, but some terrible fielding by Freddie Guzman, Mike Hessman, and Matt Joyce should get credit for the blown save.
• Two of the guys Ian at BYB pointed out as possible targets for bullpen help, pitched tonight, Royce Ring and Tyler Yates. Ring had a 1-2-3 inning vs. the bottom of the order, and Yates gave up a go-ahead run while walking 3 in the top of the ninth. Yeah, I think DD will pass on these guys.

All in all, just other meaningless spring game. Nice to hear a non-ESPN perspective on the Tigers. The main thing is that it's one day closer to the real thing.

Boy, that escalated quickly...

The national broadcast for today's Tigers-Nationals game allowed me the opportunity to view the 2008 Tigers live, for the first time this year...an opportunity I should have passed on to do other things. First off, Miguel Cabrera wasn't in the line-up. I've been anticipating seeing him since the trade. I guess I'll be waiting until Opening Day. Second, I was cool to hear from Jim Leyland and Dontrelle Willis during the game, but that 6th inning...


I'm sure that's what it felt like for Tim Byrdak today. Well let's just be happy it was a spring training game.

2008 Preview: MLB Awards and Playoffs

Awards:

NL MVP: David Wright
Should of won last year, will get it this year as long as the Mets win the NL East

NL Cy Young: Johan Santana - He might come close to 300 Ks this year

NL Manager of the Year: Bobby Cox
Like Scorsese winning for "The Departed" will get it for getting the Braves in the playoffs on his farewell tour

NL Rookie of the Year: J.R. Towles C Houston
Only because Andy LaRoche more than likely will be platooning with Nomar

AL MVP: Alex Rodriguez
Another year, another 50 HRs, another MVP.

AL Cy Young: John Lackey
He won 19 games, led the league in ERA last year. There's no signs showing that he won't have a dominant season again

AL Manager of the Year: Joe Maddon
If getting Tampa over .500 doesn't get you Manager of the Year I don't know what will.

AL Rookie of the Year: Evan Longoria 3B Tampa Bay - It will be between him and Daric Barton of Oakland. But due to the Rays success, Longoria gets more attention and the votes


Playoffs:

NL
Division Winners
NL East: New York Mets
NL Central: Chicago Cubs
NL West : Arizona Diamondbacks
Wild Card: Atlanta Braves
The Braves just edge out Philly and Los Angeles

NLDS:
Mets def. Cubs 3-0
Diamondbacks def. Braves 3-2

NLCS:
Mets def. Diamondbacks 4-2

AL
Division Winners
AL East: Boston Red Sox
AL Central: Detroit Tigers
AL West: Los Angeles Angels
Wild Card: Cleveland Indians
Indians hold off the Yankees to make it back to the playoffs

ALDS:
Red Sox def. Indians 3-2
Tigers def. Angels 3-1

ALCS:
Red Sox def. Tigers 4-2
This one's brain over heart. Unless the Tigers get some major bullpen help, I just don't see them beating the Red Sox.

World Series:
Red Sox def. Mets 4-3
A rematch of 1986, this time no Buckner error to hand the series to the Mets. Still it goes 7 games with a classic Santana-Beckett showdown in Game 7

World Series MVP:
Josh Beckett


So there you have it, my projections for the upcoming MLB season. Based on my track record about three of these things will be right, and I'm hoping my pick of the Tigers falling in the ALCS isn't one of them.