Monday, May 21, 2007

Quarterly Report Part 2

Because I'm a glutton for punishment, let's break down my pre-season picks and see how I'm doing so far

Based on May 18th standings
NL East:
Good picks are green, bad picks red
1) New York (94-68)
2) Philadelphia (90-72) *wild card*
3) Atlanta (88-74)
4) Florida (84-78)
5) Washington (66-96)

Right now It looks like Philly was a mistake as the wild card, but they have improved through May. I'll stick by my Philly pick, in the NL their big line-up should move them up the standings.

NL Central:
1) Milwaukee (85-77)
2) Chicago (83-79)
3) Cincinnati (82-80)
4) Houston (79-83)
5) St. Louis (74-88)
6) Pittsburgh (68-94)

I might have messed up the order, but I was right about the mediocrity. If all teams keep their current paces, only Milwaukee will finish above .500 (Houston will finish at .500 even). It's also good to know that my spiteful St. Louis pick is actually coming to fruition.

NL West:
1) San Diego (90-72)
2) Los Angeles (85-77)
3) Arizona (80-82)
4) Colorado (74-88)
5) San Francisco (66-96)

Los Angeles holds a slim lead over San Diego, 2 games to be exact, with the Diamondbacks right behind. I still think Arizona's will hang in there due to Randy Johnson and Brandon Webb, but their youth will show down the stretch. Colorado's hitting will pick up enough to pass San Fransisco.

NL Review:
MVP: Carlos Delgado
Yeah...way off with this one. Let's go with Derrick Lee. As he goes, so do the Cubs. If that's not an MVP I don't know what is.
Cy Young: Roy Oswalt
I'll stick with this one. Right now he leads the NL in wins, and has an ERA below 3
Rookie of the Year: Kevin Kouzmanoff
Again, not a good pick. I'll offer up the trio of Arizona's Chris Young, Colorado's Troy Tulowitzki, and Houston's Chris Sampson as finalists.

AL East:
1) New York (98-64)
2) Boston (91-71) *Wild Card*
3) Toronto (89-73)
4) Baltimore (79-83)
5) Tampa Bay (70-92)

I still don't think the Yankees will hang around the bottom of the division as the are right now. They have lost a freakish amount of starting pitchers to injury. Once everyone gets healthy, playing Baltimore, a very wounded Toronto team, and Tampa Bay will get them back in the thick of things. As for the Sox, they're on pace for 110 wins. So they're due to cool off.

AL Central
1) Detroit (95-67)
2) Cleveland (90-72)
3) Minnesota (89-73)
4) Chicago (80-82)
5) Kansas City (60-102)

and getting Joe As of the 18th the Tigers and the Indians were tied for first place, so I'm counting that as correct, since they both occupy the top spot. As for the Twins finally dumping Sidney PonsonMauer back should keep them ahead of the White Sox. How the White Sox are winning amazes me. They are last in the AL in runs scored, and only St. Louis and Washington are worse. Jim Thome coming back from injury is not going to fix that.
AL West:
1) Los Angeles Angels (94-68)
2) Oakland A's (89-73)
3) Texas Rangers (87-75)
4) Seattle Mariners (72-90)

To paraphrase Denny Green, the AL West leaders are who I thought they were. The Mariners are at .500 only by taking Jeff weaver out of the rotation. I thought Texas would get better pitching, I was wrong, and with Kevin Millwood out it won't get any better. The Rangers are going to have to win a home run derby every night to stay out of the AL West cellar.

AL Review:
MVP: Travis Hafner
He still lurking, but he's going to have to have a big summer to pass Alex Rodriguez, Vlad Guerrero, and Magglio for MVP votes
Cy Young: Johan Santana
No one has really stepped out of the pack as the elite AL pitcher this year. CC Sabathia might give him a run, but unless guys like Dan Haren, John Lackey and Josh Beckett keep it up, Johan still should win it.
Rookie of the Year: Dustin Pedroia
Yeah, I just didn't want to pick Dice-K, and I didn't think a guy like Alex Gordon would win it because everyone is looking at him. Akinori Iwamura has my vote, just because I'm sick of hearing how "great" Dice-K is. He has an ERA over 4 gives up 6 hits a game, and his 6 wins are largely due to Boston's offense not his pitching prowess.

So to sum it up, so far this year I have 11 teams presently in the spots I have them slated for at the end of the season. My NL MVP was way off, but my AL pick is still in their as a dark horse. I still like my Cy Young picks for both leagues. And picking the rookie of the year is a crap shoot, especially if you don't want to go with hype or conventional wisdom.

No comments: